SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 51.25]

The SMARTCROWD Index for GOP HOUSE, refer yesterday's entry, today stands at 51.25, down 6.80 from yesterday.  The index* is a weighted average price based on last prices and volumes reported on Tradesports, Newsfutures and WSX . Other underlying markets may be added to broaden the measurement of market sentiment.

For the full text of the update and underlying market information on the Mid Term Elections <click here>

The index is usually published weekly and more frequently if there is a change of more than 5 points +/-

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 58.05]

The markets for "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded some material swings this past week, which marked the 5th anniversary of 9/11, giving the GOP numerous platforms to press home the Republican message.  The markets, especially Tradesports, responded by marking up the chances of the GOP retaining control of the House.  Expect more price swings over the next 7 weeks as opinion shapers and politics shift into top gear. 

This week, we're also launching the SMARTCROWD Index measuring sentiment across the markets.  *At the time of this entry the inaugural Index for GOP HOUSE stands at 58.05.

Prediction markets

Tradesports - at the time of this entry, the GOP to control House was priced at 53.5 with 38,600 contracts traded. Latest prices below.

Newsfutures - at the time of this entry, the Democrats to control House was priced at 60 on exceptionally light total volume of 1,358 contracts. Latest prices below.

WSX: Trading at the Washington Stock Exchange kicked off last week.  At the time of this entry, "GOP control of the House" was priced at 62.35 with an average daily 47,704 contracts traded.  Full market details here <House06>.

SMARTCROWD Index GOP HOUSE = 58.05   The index is a weighted last price and total volume averaged across the above markets.  Other underlying markets may be added to broaden the measurement of market sentiment. 

Control of the Senate. 

The markets in “Control of the Senate” were essentially unchanged with all markets signaling the GOP is highly likely to retain control of the Senate. 

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

Click here for <original entry>.   Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate

Will the Republican Party (GOP) still control the House of Representatives after the US mid term elections on November 7th?  Will the GOP still control the Senate?  The clear signals from the prediction markets and the media is that the GOP has good reason to be concerned about retaining control of the House; sentiment suggests the GOP will retain control of the Senate. Expect further price activity as we move toward November 7.   

Tradesports: "GOP to retain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 39 (current bid 39) with 35,500 contracts traded, while the "GOP to retain control of the Senate" last traded at 79.6 with 14,600 contracts traded.  Current "GOP to retain House" prices are below:

Newsfutures: "Democrats to regain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 72 with 1,165 contracts traded, a small fraction of what's been traded on Tradesports (for money), while "Democrats to regain control of the Senate" last traded at just 10 with 28,445 contracts traded.  Current prices are below.

Democrats to take control of the House, at Newsfutures

Democrats to take control of the Senate, at Newsfutures

We'll deliver a weekly update in the run up to the elections, bringing you the latest in the markets (including new market Casual Observer & perhaps soon the WSX) and news about the politics that shapes them.  Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

Watch this space!   From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Leadership of Cuba, Fidel Castro?

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Leadership of Cuba, Fidel Castro?

The markets, covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba, saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Newsutures, where the price for Fidel Castro's return breached 80, then dropped below 50, before settling at 61.  Inkling Markets' price at 71.27 continues to be less volatile and slightly more optimistic than Newsfutures, while over at Tradesports, the market - which has only days to run before it expires - experienced a significant price fall to 7, reflecting a very low probability of Fidel Castro resuming power before end-August. 

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 71.27 (30th September); down slightly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP, at 61 (open-ended); up almost 25% on the week

Tradesports, DOWN, at 7 (31st August); with a current ASK at 4; down over 50% on the week.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets, covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba, saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Newsutures, where the price for Fidel Castro's return breached 80, then dropped below 50, before settling at 61.  Inkling Markets' price at 71.27 continues to be less volatile and slightly more optimistic than Newsfutures, while over at Tradesports, the market - which has only days to run before it expires - experienced a significant price fall to 7, reflecting a very low probability of Fidel Castro resuming power before end-August. 

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 71.27 (30th September); down slightly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP, at 61 (open-ended); up almost 25% on the week

Tradesports, DOWN, at 7 (31st August); with a current ASK at 4; down over 50% on the week.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Leadership of Cuba, Fidel Castro?

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming the Leadership of Cuba diverged during the week as further mixed news seeped into the public domain. 

Views are still mixed as shown by the following prices (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, UP, at 76.13 (30th September)

Newsfutures, DOWN, at 46 (open-ended)

Tradesports, DOWN, at 15 (31st August)

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

Leadership of Cuba, Fidel Castro?

A few Prediction Markets operators (PMs) are quoting markets on the return or demise of Fidel Castro, Cuba's long standing leader who recently stepped down for health reasons.

Inkling Markets, Newsfutures and Tradesports each have markets running for different time periods.

At the time of this entry, Newsfutures prices are highest, though these are not time-bound contracts.   At the time of this entry 2,590 contracts had been traded on Newsfutures.   Prices will fluctuate; current prices are below.

Inkling Markets' prices, based on Fidel Castro's return to power at 30 September are below, on light trade.  Prices will fluctuate; current prices are below.   

Meanwhile, Tradesports is showing lower prices based on the contract claim that Fidel Castro return to power by 31 August.  Prices will fluctuate; current prices are below.

The media is starting to pick up some positive news about Fidel Castro's health but reports remain mixed. <Google Search>

The conflicting media views of Fidel Castro's health and the likelihood he will return to power, are well contrasted in the following articles. Better health and walking versus silence signals a transition in power.

Given these starkly contrasting views, its no surprise the PMs are currently priced so differently.

The only clear signal is that very few PM traders expect Fidel Castro to resume power by end August.  Expect plenty of price movement as more news enters the public domain.   

Note: in each of the above markets, the correct prediction is worth 100, while the incorrect one is worth 0.  So buyers are moderately to reasonably confident that a claim will be true when they are buying contracts at (say) 69/70, and very skeptical that the claim will be true when buying them at (say) 15. 

Watch this space!   

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.