SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 59.02]

The markets for "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded modest changes during the past 7 days. 

At the time* of this entry, the SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP HOUSE stands at 59.02, up 7.77 on seven days ago.  The index, which measures sentiment across markets, is a weighted average price based on last prices and volumes reported at Betfair, Newsfutures, Tradesports and WSX. See footnotes.

Markets

Note: The prices below were at the time of this entry, unless specifically mentioned.

Betfair -  the "GOP to control the House" last traded at 53.7 and was quoted at 48.5 bid and 53.7 ask, while "Democrats to control the House" contract last traded at 51.8 and was offered (ask) at 51.8, with no current bid.  Total "volume" is 5,701 across both markets.

Casual Observer - over at Casual Observer, the CO market index for Control of the House has the Republicans standing at 46.51, with Democrats at 54.29. 

Newsfutures - the "GOP to control House" was last traded at 36 with 1,568 contracts traded.  Latest prices below (in past month view).

Tradesports - the "GOP to control House" was last traded at 58 with 42,700 contracts traded. Latest prices below (in past year view).

WSX - the "GOP to control House" was last traded at 61.06 with an average 43,841 contracts traded.  Latest prices

So the crowds at Casual Observer and Newsfutures currently favour Democrats to win the House of Representatives, while the crowds at Tradesports and WSX suggest the Republicans will retain control of the House of Reps.   The SMARTCROWD Index measures the Republicans slightly ahead.

This is a very close contest and much too close to call now.  Expect further price swings as we approach November 7th, especially during the last 10 days of the campaign and, in the interim, if any major national or worldwide events occur that could influence or affect the outcome.

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

Footnotes: 1) Betfair pricing is also now incoporated into the SMARTCROWD Index, resulting in a recalculation of the GOP House index from 59.13 to 59.02. The index now measures sentiment across four markets. 2) Many thanks to Chris F Masse for his guidance regarding certain pricing elements for this entry.

UPDATE: Golf, Ryder Cup Matches

The prediction markets covering the Ryder Cup clearly signal Team USA will need more than a stroke of luck (and genius), if it is to now stop Team Europe from taking the Ryder Cup home again.   Here's how the UK Daily Mail sums up the situation "Americans fire blanks at Ryder Cup".

At the time of this entry, the price of "Team Europe to Win" at Tradesports is 91 bid (last trade 70), with zero offered at this time, while at Newsfutures "Team Europe to Win" last traded at 90.

For latest news <click here>.  For live leader board <click here>.

Assuming the Europeans don't collapse, this will probably be our last entry for the Ryder Cup.   After all, could the crowd really be that wrong?   Stranger things have happened in sports and in golf particularly, so don't write Team USA off completely just yet!   The markets suggest they have a 1 in 10 chance of winning.  And there's plenty of pride still to play for.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE Golf: Ryder Cup Matches

Markets covering the Ryder Cup responded to the first day's action in Ireland by slashing "Team USA to Win" prices by almost 30% as Team Europe took a 5-3 lead on the first day at the K Club.  Team Europe prices were marked up accordingly.

For latest news <click here>.  For live leader board <click here>.

Prediction Markets

Tradesports: At the time of this entry, Team USA to Win dropped 11.7 points from 42.7 to 31, on 938 contracts today, taking the total contracts traded to 10,817.  The current bid/ask spread is very tight with a bid of 30.6 and an ask of 30.9.   Current prices are show below in the 24 hour snapshot chart. 

Team USA to Win

At the time of this entry, Team Europe to Win was quoted with a last trade price of 69, with a total of 3,126 contracts traded. Current prices are show below in the 24 hour snapshot chart. 

Team Europe to Win

Newsfutures: At the time of this entry, Team USA to Win also dropped, touching an low intra day of 21, before closing at 31.  Total open volume at Newsfutures is 14,865 contracts.  The current bid/ask spread is wide at 21 bid, 38 ask.   Team Europe to Win is the opposite side of these propositions.  Current prices for Team Europe to Win and Team USA to Win are show below in the 24 hour snapshot chart. 

Team Europe to Win

Team USA to Win

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 4/7 against, while USA to Win was 2/1 on.

Weather permitting, tomorrow (Saturday) promises to bring another great day of golf.  Fans worldwide with be glued to their  wide screen plasmas, their web connections and internet radio.

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 51.25]

The SMARTCROWD Index for GOP HOUSE, refer yesterday's entry, today stands at 51.25, down 6.80 from yesterday.  The index* is a weighted average price based on last prices and volumes reported on Tradesports, Newsfutures and WSX . Other underlying markets may be added to broaden the measurement of market sentiment.

For the full text of the update and underlying market information on the Mid Term Elections <click here>

The index is usually published weekly and more frequently if there is a change of more than 5 points +/-

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 58.05]

The markets for "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded some material swings this past week, which marked the 5th anniversary of 9/11, giving the GOP numerous platforms to press home the Republican message.  The markets, especially Tradesports, responded by marking up the chances of the GOP retaining control of the House.  Expect more price swings over the next 7 weeks as opinion shapers and politics shift into top gear. 

This week, we're also launching the SMARTCROWD Index measuring sentiment across the markets.  *At the time of this entry the inaugural Index for GOP HOUSE stands at 58.05.

Prediction markets

Tradesports - at the time of this entry, the GOP to control House was priced at 53.5 with 38,600 contracts traded. Latest prices below.

Newsfutures - at the time of this entry, the Democrats to control House was priced at 60 on exceptionally light total volume of 1,358 contracts. Latest prices below.

WSX: Trading at the Washington Stock Exchange kicked off last week.  At the time of this entry, "GOP control of the House" was priced at 62.35 with an average daily 47,704 contracts traded.  Full market details here <House06>.

SMARTCROWD Index GOP HOUSE = 58.05   The index is a weighted last price and total volume averaged across the above markets.  Other underlying markets may be added to broaden the measurement of market sentiment. 

Control of the Senate. 

The markets in “Control of the Senate” were essentially unchanged with all markets signaling the GOP is highly likely to retain control of the Senate. 

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

Click here for <original entry>.   Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate

Will the Republican Party (GOP) still control the House of Representatives after the US mid term elections on November 7th?  Will the GOP still control the Senate?  The clear signals from the prediction markets and the media is that the GOP has good reason to be concerned about retaining control of the House; sentiment suggests the GOP will retain control of the Senate. Expect further price activity as we move toward November 7.   

Tradesports: "GOP to retain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 39 (current bid 39) with 35,500 contracts traded, while the "GOP to retain control of the Senate" last traded at 79.6 with 14,600 contracts traded.  Current "GOP to retain House" prices are below:

Newsfutures: "Democrats to regain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 72 with 1,165 contracts traded, a small fraction of what's been traded on Tradesports (for money), while "Democrats to regain control of the Senate" last traded at just 10 with 28,445 contracts traded.  Current prices are below.

Democrats to take control of the House, at Newsfutures

Democrats to take control of the Senate, at Newsfutures

We'll deliver a weekly update in the run up to the elections, bringing you the latest in the markets (including new market Casual Observer & perhaps soon the WSX) and news about the politics that shapes them.  Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

Watch this space!   From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Leadership of Cuba, Fidel Castro?

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the likelihood of Fidel Castro resuming his Leadership of Cuba saw some price swings during the week, mainly at Inkling Markets' which dropped from 71.27 to 54.54. 

Over at Tradesports, a new 31 December contract was listed after the 31 August contract expired at 0.   

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Inkling Markets, DOWN, at 54.54 (30th September); down significantly on the week;

Newsfutures, UP at 62 (open-ended) on 4,213 contracts traded;  Here's the price chart at Newsfutures.

Tradesports, 31st August contract expired at 0; Tradesports has since listed a new 31 December contract.   It is pretty illiquid right now; only 8 contracts have traded so far, with a last trade price of 50; though at the time of this entry the current Ask was lower at 39 for 2 contracts, with 5 offered at 40 and 3 at 53.   Here's the price chart at Tradesports.

Each of these markets has a different expiry period. 

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.  Here's the latest <Google News> about Fidel Castro.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Golf, Ryder Cup Matches

The markets covering the Ryder Cup remained relatively steady during the week, though Team USA prices improved as interest in the event increases.  Prices for USA increased significantly at Newsfutures (fake money market), though volume was low. 

Prediction Markets

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Tradesports, The Europe to Win at 57 (current bid at 53.5, ask at 57.2), price unchanged; with 1,341 contracts traded; with USA to Win, also steady at 43.8 with 2,444 contracts traded.  Here's the price chart for USA to Win at Tradesports;

Newsfutures, The Europe to Win's price spiked up to 79, on low volume with 5,400 contracts traded (vs a total of 4,890 contracts traded this time last week). USA to Win is the opposite side of the very same market proposition at 21.   Here's the price chart for Europe to Win at Newsfutures.

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 18/19 on, while USA to Win was 11/8 against.      

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.   Here's the latest <Google News> about the Ryder Cup event.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the Ryder Cup remained relatively steady during the week, though Team USA prices improved as interest in the event increases.  Prices for USA increased significantly at Newsfutures (fake money market), though volume was low. 

Prediction Markets

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Tradesports, The Europe to Win at 57 (current bid at 53.5, ask at 57.2), price unchanged; with 1,341 contracts traded; with USA to Win, also steady at 43.8 with 2,444 contracts traded.  Here's the price chart for USA to Win at Tradesports;

Newsfutures, The Europe to Win's price spiked up to 79, on low volume with 5,400 contracts traded (vs a total of 4,890 contracts traded this time last week). USA to Win is the opposite side of the very same market proposition at 21.   Here's the price chart for Europe to Win at Newsfutures.

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 18/19 on, while USA to Win was 11/8 against.      

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.   Here's the latest <Google News> about the Ryder Cup event.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the Ryder Cup remained relatively steady during the week, though Team USA prices improved as interest in the event increases.  Prices for USA increased significantly at Newsfutures (fake money market), though volume was low. 

Prediction Markets

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Tradesports, The Europe to Win at 57 (current bid at 53.5, ask at 57.2), price unchanged; with 1,341 contracts traded; with USA to Win, also steady at 43.8 with 2,444 contracts traded.  Here's the price chart for USA to Win at Tradesports;

Newsfutures, The Europe to Win's price spiked up to 79, on low volume with 5,400 contracts traded (vs a total of 4,890 contracts traded this time last week). USA to Win is the opposite side of the very same market proposition at 21.   Here's the price chart for Europe to Win at Newsfutures.

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 18/19 on, while USA to Win was 11/8 against.      

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.   Here's the latest <Google News> about the Ryder Cup event.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

Tip Kiva

You'll notice we've included a tip jar on the site.  All tips to SMARTCROWD (which are greatfully received and not refundable) will be transferred into the Kiva network, and then recycled back into the Kiva community on repayment of loans.  The first transfer of $100, from SMARTCROWD, was made through Kiva to Angel Peralta.   

Recognize our effort; put your change to work.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

UPDATE: Golf, Ryder Cup Matches

The markets covering the Ryder Cup remained steady during the week. 

Prediction Markets

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Tradesports, Europe to Win at 57 (current bid at 58.3), price unchanged; with 951 contracts traded; with USA to Win, also steady at 41.8 with 1569 contracts traded;

Newsfutures, Europe to Win UNCHANGED at 56, with 4,890 contracts traded. USA to Win is the opposite side of the very same market proposition.

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 9/10 on, while USA to Win was 7/5 on.      

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

The markets covering the Ryder Cup remained steady during the week. 

Prediction Markets

Prices currently stand as follows (at the time of this entry):

Tradesports, Europe to Win at 57 (current bid at 58.3), price unchanged; with 951 contracts traded; with USA to Win, also steady at 41.8 with 1569 contracts traded;

Newsfutures, Europe to Win UNCHANGED at 56, with 4,890 contracts traded. USA to Win is the opposite side of the very same market proposition.

Betting Markets

Oddschecker aggregates sports betting odds/prices.  At the time of this entry, the best prices for Europe to Win was 9/10 on, while USA to Win was 7/5 on.      

Click here for <original entry, news and current prices>.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.