SMARTCROWD

WRAP: US Mid Term Elections [SMARTCROWD INDEX - DEMOCRATS WIN BOTH HOUSES]

The International Herald Tribune reports "Democrats win control of both houses of Congress for first time since 1994" following Jim Webb's narrow victory against Senator George Allen in Virginia.   The Democrats secured the House of Reps on election night, but votes were still being counted for the last few Senate races through most of Wednesday.  The news broke just before 9pm, eastern time. 

In the end the prediction markets correctly called the battle for the House of Reps (see index trend), where the markets signaled a win for the Democrats, as sentiment shifted against the GOP. The markets did not perform as well in the Senate battle, where the Republicans were consistently favored, notwithstanding GOP prices/ratings softened slightly in recent weeks.  The Senate battle was infinitely closer than the markets suggested and in hindsight (where we all have 20:20 vision) a probability rating/price closer to 50 would have been a more accurate gauge.

On the morning of Election Day, the SMARTCROWD Index covering the "Democrats to regain control of the House" markets stood at 73.58 while the GOP stood at just 26.42.  At the same time, the "Democrats to regain control of the Senate" markets  stood at just 30 while the GOP still commanded a probability rating/price of 70; in that context, the Senate result was a surprise.   The markets suggested it was much more likely the Democrats would take control of the House of Reps, while the Republicans would retain control of the Senate.  So, one right; one wrong..... Good news for Democrats, bad news for Republicans and perhaps slightly sobering news for prediction market aficionados.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

This entry closes our coverage of the mid term elections, unless a posse of hanging chads makes its presence felt very soon.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 26.42]

With just 3 days to go the Democrats have nudged further ahead in the prediction markets.   

The SMARTCROWD Index covering the "Democrats to regain control of the House" markets, now stands at 73.58 (*at the time of writing this entry), their highest probability rating yet.  Meanwhile, the index for the "GOP to retain control of the House" markets has fallen to a low of 26.42, down from a high of 59.02 on September 24th.  The Democrats are now firm favorites to regain control, based on the signals from the markets we're watching.

The media is in full swing on the midterm elections.  According to Forbes Democrats Appear Set for Election Gains, while the New York Times reports Republicans Resigned to Idea of Big Losses

Expect further jockeying and possible "price" movement over the next couple of days. 

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	19.00	24,036
WSX	36.59	53,532
SMARTCROWD Index	26.42

Market Trend

The SMARTCROWD Index highlights a clear trend over the past 2 months.  Unless very significant news unfolds which reverses current sentiment, the message from the prediction markets is that the Democrats are now firmly favored to win the battle for control of the House.  Expect further "price" action between now and Tuesday night, especially on Tuesday as news of polling results are reported by the media.   

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!   We'll publish a final update late on Monday evening. 

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.67]

The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, has stablized and today stands at 34.67 (*at the time of this entry), up slightly from 34.03 last week.  The corresponding index for the Democrats regaining control of the House fell slightly to 65.33.

The markets we're watching continue to favor the Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives, though the trendlines are now moving towards each other again.

Expect plenty of action in the next week as more news comes into the market and people firm up their views.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	30.00	18,165
WSX	35.43	67,710

SMARTCROWD Index

34.67

Market Trend

  News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.03]

The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at 34.03 (*at the time of this entry), down on the week and significantly below its high of 59.02 on September 24th.  The SMARTCROWD Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House jumped to a new high of 65.97, signalling the Democrats remain in a favored in the markets we're watching.  On September 24th, the index for Democrat control of the House stood at 40.98.

The Washington Post hosts a neat chart with details of all House and Senate races.   Canada.Com calls Democrats within reach of seizing control of House in mid term election.  Forbes reports on the national security card and its potential impact on polls.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	24.00	9,163
WSX	33.18	74,111
Totals
SMARTCROWD Index	34.03

Market Trend

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats gaining further lead.  Unless significant news unfolds which further influences sentiment, the index may be expected to remain relatively stable until the week prior to November 7, when more action may be expected.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 36.08]

Update

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives moved by almost 10% since we last updated the index on October 3rd. The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at just 36.08 (*at the time of this entry); down almost 10% since our last entry on October 3rd.   This contrasts with a high of 59.02 on September 24th.

The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 63.92, the highest probability yet, signalling the Democrats are now favored across the board in the markets we're watching.

Market Trends

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats now are favored to regain control of the House in terms of probabilities.

   

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Prediction Markets

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Newsfutures (total volume)	28.00	7,543
WSX (average daily volumes)	37.75	78,986
Totals
SMARTCROWD Index	36.08

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Pause for Bill

We paused recently to review the impact of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (attached to the unrelated Port Security Bill), that became law on 13th October, 2006. Here's how the Washington Post reported it (note: scroll down the linked page to read the WP article).   This law is already having a significant impact on targeted businesses.

You may notice we’re making some very minor changes in our reporting and coverage.  While we do not believe the legislative changes were even indirectly aimed at information sites like this one, we’ve nonetheless decided to make some small changes, at least in the short to medium term, for the avoidance of doubt.      

We hope you continue to enjoy our posts and the findings useful.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 39.75]

Earlier today, we said to expect more price movement as the campaigning gets tough.  That's exactly what we are now witnessing, with markets reacting quickly and swiftly to rapidly changing sentiment.

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives today recorded significant fluctuations. The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at just 39.75 (at the time of this entry); a significant drop of 8.10 points, or down almost 17%.   This contrasts with a high of 59.02 on September 24th.

The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 60.25, the highest probability yet, signalling the Democrats are now favored across the board in these underlying markets. 

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Market	Last	Volume
Betfair	45.04	2,093
Tradesports	40.90	49,600
Newsfutures	36.00	3, 016
WSX	36.59	44,435
Totals		97,051
SMARTCROWD Index	39.75	51.as;k

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 47.85]

Update:

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives have responded to recent events and current sentiment by marking prices for the GOP retaining control of the House of Reps down.   The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at 47.85 (at the time of this entry); the first time it has measured below 50, the mid-point level.  The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 52.15 giving the Democrat Party a small but clear lead. 

Expect more jockeying and price movement as the weeks unfold and the campaigning gets tough.

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Market	Last	Volume
Betfair	42.30	2,062
Tradesports	46.90	48,000
Newsfutures	39.00	2,915
WSX	47.50	44,435
Totals		95,350
SMARTCROWD Index	47.85	51.as;k

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 52.39]

Introduction

The markets covering the midterm elections have shown some minor changes since our last entry.  The SMARTCROWD Index for GOP Control of the House of Representatives currently stands at 52.39, down on the previous week.  The corresponding index for the Democrats stands at 47.61. The chart right shows the markets "in aggregate" are now signalling only a very small advantage for the GOP, with the Democrats capitalizing on GOP issues this week. This is an exceptionally close race and far too difficult to call at this point in time.  The campaigning will get very focused now we've moved into the last 5 weeks.  Here's how the UK Observer newspaper called it overnight.  Expect the markets to be a little more volatile as the campaigning gets tough.

The individual markets were as follows at the time of this entry:

Market	Last
Betfair	52.63
Tradesports	52.00
Newsfutures	36.00
WSX	51.25

Market Data  

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 55.95]

The markets covering "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded modest changes during the past 7 days.   At the time* of this entry, the SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP HOUSE stands at 55.95, down 3.07 points.   The index, which measures sentiment across markets, is a weighted average price based on last prices and volumes reported at Betfair, Newsfutures, Tradesports and WSX.

This week the market report is in a more concise format for easier comparisons, House_of_Representatives_market_update.

Tradesports: The live price for GOP Control of the House (shown in current week view), is below.

This contest remains too close to call right now.  Expect further price swings as we approach November 7th,

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.