Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, November 11th, 2007.
The SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:
Iowa Electronic Markets,
Inkling Markets,
FT Predict; and
Newsfutures.
SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings, based on prices on November 11th, and the relevant spreads (spreads explained) are as follows.
Leading Democrats
08 DEM Clinton 72.15% +, spread 4.34 points
08 DEM Obama 15.86% -, spread 4.60 points
08 DEM Edwards 5.66% -, spread 2.15 points
Leading Republicans
08 GOP Giuliani 42.87% +, spread 4.25 points
08 GOP Romney 32.15% +, spread 1.96 points
08 GOP Thompson (F) 7.49% -, spread 4.10 points
08 GOP McCain 7.85% +, spread 5.21 points
Party for President
08 GOP President 37.68% -, spread 3.56 points
08 DEM President 62.15% +, spread 1.41 points
Analytics
We're still kicking around some ideas for new analytics/metrics that measure prediction markets, poll data and news. We hope to release this before year end, assuming we are confident that the outputs add value and increase the breadth, depth and richness of what makes up the SMARTCROWD consensus index. Currently the index is calculated solely from prediction market data.
News
There's been some very significant changes in prediction market ratings since October 7th, when we last reported our ratings. The most significant changes are the extent to which Hillary Clinton has further consolidated her lead, from 65.76% to 72.15%, and the extent to which Fred Thompson has slipped in the prediction market ratings, from 21.84% to 7.49%. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have improved their ratings from 37.17% to 42.87% and 25.62% to 32.15% respectively.
Here's some interesting articles that give a snapshot of what's happening in the nomination races.
Who will take on Hillary?, The Economist, November 1st, 2007
Poll: A year before '08 election, public's theme is discontent, ABC News, November 4th, 2007
Clinton on debate: 'I wasn't at my best', CNN Political Ticker, November 6th, 2007
Ahead of the boys. A whiff of hope for Hillary Clinton's rivals. The Economist, November 7th, 2007
How Much Did Thompson's Abortion Comments Hurt Him?, NRO, November 8th, 2007
Time running short for Obama, AFP, November 10th
Democrats blitz Iowa to rev up support, AP, November 11th, 2007
Republicans 2008: Giuliani 33%, McCain 16%, Angus Reid Global Monitor, November 11th, 2007
Huckabee, Paul discount front-runners, United Press International, November 11th, 2007
Our daily newsclip page has a broad list of relevant articles.
For latest news, click <DEM news> and <GOP news>
Other news
There was one piece of news from Google that we're very excited about. It looks as if Google may soon aggregate prediction market data in the same way that it augments relevant articles with stock quotes and links. This will be very powerful and will significantly increase the awareness of prediction markets. Go Google! We'll obviously have to start focusing on more meaningful metrics!
This will be a great development. Awareness of prediction markets has progressively increased over the past 6-12 months, & especially since elements of established media have started to take interest.
That's it for this time.
From the crew at SMARTCROWD
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