SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Prediction Markets

Barack Obama is making up ground on Hillary Clinton following his outstanding fund raising efforts. Barack Obama raised a stunning $32.5m in the second quarter of this year, considerably more than Hillary Clinton and more than the top two Republicans combined, the Economist reported in its election update "Of cash and crushes". The gap between Hillary and Obama, whose SMARTCROWD ratings are 43.24% (trending down) and 34.49% (trending up) respectively, is now only 8.75 percentage points. See the chart, above right. At Intrade, the gap between the two rivals was just 3.8 points, while at the Iowa Electronic Markets it was 9.1 points.

In the GOP nominee markets, John McCain's probability rating continues to wane. McCain's SMARTCROWD rating is now just 7.2%, which compares unfavorably with a rating of 28.57% in mid-May. That's a staggering change in sentiment. CNN reported McCain camp to undergo significant shakeup earlier this week.

According to the prediction markets, Fred Thompson and Rudy Guilliani continue to lead the GOP nominee race, with SMARTCROWD ratings of 34.04% and 30.09% respectively. Mitt Romney's equivalent rating is 18.74%.

According to FT Predict, the likelihood of Al Gore joining the race is 22% (Gore price chart), while the likelihood of Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent is 40.5% (Bloomberg price chart). At Inkling Markets, the corresponding prices were 47.3% 11.2% and 11.2% 47.3% respectively*. At Inkling Markets, the Gore price looks to have fallen following reports that Gore (still) has no interest in running.

Expect further movements in the markets over the next 12 months as campaigning, ahead of the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, moves into full swing!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.
* amended PM 7/7/07

Comments

[U Little]

Hey buddy! Nice blog that you maintain here.. I just chanced upon your blog surfing the blogosphere. I was thinking.. you could try out some interesting widgets on your page and spice it up with more relevant information. E.g try out the poster widget on http://www.widgetmate.com with your relevant keywords. It has some of the best images i have ever seen.

[smartcrowd]

Thanks x2. We'll give it a try.