SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08: Clinton & Obama - rivals or running mates?

Following the CNN/YouTube debate last Monday, the Clinton and Obama camps launched a spat about foreign diplomacy, generating plenty of media coverage. While their respective camps were going at each other, others piled in too, kicking up the dust.

In the prediction markets, Hillary Clinton strengthened her lead with a SMARTCROWD rating (trending up) of 46.3%. See chart, above. Barack Obama still trails Clinton with a rating of 33.31%, slightly lower than his early-July rating following his stellar fund raising performance. John Edwards' rating remains in single digits.

Surprisingly (or was it?), a lot of fuss was made about a Washington Post article that referred to Hillary's neckline, sending political commentators and the media wading into a "cleavage" debate, generating newsprint, TV and blog coverage around the world.

Elsewhere, according to CNN, Newt Gingrich today predicted that Barack Obama would be Hillary Clinton's running mate in '08. Its obviously too early to tell whether this is an insightful prediction, or simply adding political fuel to the fire, or both. But the angle, not surprisingly, is getting coverage 1, 2.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the Republican nominee race still remains open. According to the prediction markets, Rudy Giuliani leads with a SMARTCROWD rating of 32.52% (trending up), ahead of Fred Thompson at 29.37% (trending down) and Mitt Romney at 21.38% (trendiing up). John McCain again scores just 7.2%.

New York Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, continued to downplay suggestions that he will run, yet he still commands a probability rating of 33.4% (trending up) at FT Predict.

Interesting times, indeed.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

(Note: we're releasing this article without links (and with apologies), due to a technical hitch. We'll repair these asap, as there's some great content out there!).

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Prediction Markets

Barack Obama is making up ground on Hillary Clinton following his outstanding fund raising efforts. Barack Obama raised a stunning $32.5m in the second quarter of this year, considerably more than Hillary Clinton and more than the top two Republicans combined, the Economist reported in its election update "Of cash and crushes". The gap between Hillary and Obama, whose SMARTCROWD ratings are 43.24% (trending down) and 34.49% (trending up) respectively, is now only 8.75 percentage points. See the chart, above right. At Intrade, the gap between the two rivals was just 3.8 points, while at the Iowa Electronic Markets it was 9.1 points.

In the GOP nominee markets, John McCain's probability rating continues to wane. McCain's SMARTCROWD rating is now just 7.2%, which compares unfavorably with a rating of 28.57% in mid-May. That's a staggering change in sentiment. CNN reported McCain camp to undergo significant shakeup earlier this week.

According to the prediction markets, Fred Thompson and Rudy Guilliani continue to lead the GOP nominee race, with SMARTCROWD ratings of 34.04% and 30.09% respectively. Mitt Romney's equivalent rating is 18.74%.

According to FT Predict, the likelihood of Al Gore joining the race is 22% (Gore price chart), while the likelihood of Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent is 40.5% (Bloomberg price chart). At Inkling Markets, the corresponding prices were 47.3% 11.2% and 11.2% 47.3% respectively*. At Inkling Markets, the Gore price looks to have fallen following reports that Gore (still) has no interest in running.

Expect further movements in the markets over the next 12 months as campaigning, ahead of the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, moves into full swing!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.
* amended PM 7/7/07

America's Cup: Update

Alinghi hoists the America's Cup for a second time.

Swiss yacht Alinghi successfully defended the America's Cup against New Zealand's Emirates Team after a photo-finish win in Race 7 today, taking the match series 5-2.

In the run-up, New Zealand's Emirates Team defeated yachts from around the world, including Larry Ellison's BMW Oracle Racing, winning the Louis Vuitton Cup and the right to challenge Alinghi for the America's Cup, but the Kiwis failed at the last hurdle with the Swiss team proving too strong. The bitter irony is that Alinghi was skippered by Brad Butterworth from New Zealand.

After putting the America's Cup defeat behind them, all New Zealanders will be pinning their sporting hopes on the mighty All Blacks who go into the Rugby World Cup tournament in France, in September, as overwhelming favorites. At Inkling Markets, the All Blacks are rated with a 51% probability of winning the Rugby World Cup. At Tradesports, the All Blacks are quoted at 68-73, on nil volume.

New Zealand is one seriously competitive sporting nation, especially given its population is just under 4.2 million.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD