SMARTCROWD: SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

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June 24, 2007

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

What's new in the prediction markets?

Michael Bloomberg got plenty of media coverage this week.

Even though Bloomberg continues to say he’s not running in ’08, the media continues to speculate after he dropped his Republican Party affiliation to register as an independent. Here’s how the FT covered it "Bloomberg hints at run for President" on Wednesday. The Economist reported “New York’s mayor flirts with an independent bid for the presidency”, while today, The New York Times ran the front page article “President? or Kingmaker?”; note, now behind NYT's subscription page. The prediction markets covering "Bloomberg to run as an Independent" responded by marking Bloomberg up. Inkling Markets moved the New York Mayor up to 47.8%, while over at Intrade, the probability rating was 45.3%, having reached a high of 50%.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton has cemented her lead as the likely Democratic nominee. The SMARTCROWD Index for Clinton to become "the Democratic Party nominee" now stands at 47.51%. Barack Obama has slipped slightly in the same markets, with a SMARTCROWD Index rating just below 30%, on a single point spread, demonstrating a consistent view across the markets we’re monitoring. Both candidates continue to command considerable coverage. The Economist ran this heading "Disliked, but still most likely" in the Lexington article Pillorying Hillary. The FT summed up Obama’s predicament, like this "Obama tries harder, but still No.2". John Edwards’ campaign is slipping, if you believe the ratings across the various prediction markets.

GOP

In the GOP race, according to the prediction markets, Fred Thompson and Rudi Giulliani are neck and neck with SMARTCROWD Index ratings of 27.96% and 27.03% respectively. There’s still plenty to fight for in this race….. Mitt Romney runs third with 21%, while John McCain, who has slipped significantly in recent weeks, is now just 13.6%. The polling group Angus Reid Global Monitor has similar findings.

General

Ratings for a GOP President in 2008 stand at 40% and 58% for a Democrat President.

For the latest SMARTCROWD Index ratings for the leading GOP and DEM candidates <click here>.

That's it for this week!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on June 24, 2007 at 03:45 PM | Permalink

Tags: Election '08, Prediction Markets, SMART CROWD

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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