Election '08 - More hands to play?

Campaigning for the '08 Presidential Election is well and truly underway.  Both parties have held their first round debates, which attracted plenty of media coverage.  Here's how NPR.Org reported the GOP debate.

Prediction Markets

There's been some modest changes in the prediction markets. since we last calculated the index in mid April. According to the SMARTCROWD index, Hillary Clinton still leads the Democrat race with a rating of 41.12%, followed closely by Barack Obama at 33.92%.  John Edwards slipped back a few points to 10.35%.   Refer to the probability chart*, below left, comparing April and May standings.

      

                                                   

The candidates for the GOP nominee are bunched much tighter, with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain now neck and neck at 28.36% and 28.33% respectively, with Mitt Romney trailing a close third at 21.69%.  Refer to the probability chart*, right, which again compares data for this month and last.

John McCain clearly gained a couple of points at Rudy Giuliani's and Mitt Romney's expense, since we last measured the index based on a range of prediction market prices/probabilities*.

The SMARTCROWD Index for the major contracts <click here> is shown in the top left panel.

There's likely to be some changes in the markets over the next few weeks as participants respond to statements by the candidates or to events they're involved in.  Expect more significant movements if either Mike Bloomberg or Al Gore (or dare we say both) declare an intention to run.

So, what's new?

This past week, there's been plenty of speculation that New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, might enter the '08 race for the White House as an independent.  Here's how The Washington Post and The New York Observer each covered the buzz. Right now, Inkling Markets is the only PM covering "Bloomberg to run as an independent". While trading is thin, at the time of this post, Inkling quoted a probability of 44.3% on low volume of about 600 contracts.  If media speculation continues, you can expect other PMs to float similar contracts, and for volumes generally to increase.                     

While not new, the latent speculation continues to bubble up about Al Gore.  The New York Times Magazine, this weekend, dedicated four pages to AG under the title "Al Gore has big plans".    The article included the following Q&A..... A. “I’m not issuing a Shermanesque statement because that’s not where I am. I’m not ruling it out for all time. Although I cannot presently foresee any circumstances, such circumstances could emerge.”  Q. “And such circumstances could emerge in 2008?”  A. “It’s extremely unlikely, but not impossible.”   

Larry King will be interviewing Al Gore on Tuesday May 22nd.  The LKL trailers are teasing the LKL audience about the choice facing Al Gore; continuing to spearhead global warming awareness and strategies to address climate change, or returning to Washington.  The markets seem to think he'll choose the former, but stranger things have happened in politics. The long standing WSX contract for Al Gore as President trades at just 11.41.

Elsewhere

As we noted in our previous post, internet media giants are actively embracing Election 08, just as the candidates are using this ubiquitous medium to reach new communities.  Here, the LA Times explains how and why MySpace and YouTube will be active in the Presidential Election. 

This Capital 9 News video and this "Democrats pushing the e-frontier" article also provide a good super-brief background regarding this new trend. 

That's it for this post.  Until next time....

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

* the SMARTCROWD Index is compiled from data (recorded Saturday May 19th) from the following markets: Inkling Markets, Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, Newsfutures and WSX.  The comparable data for April was compiled from the exact same markets.

Comments

[Fast exchanger]

Great work guys. Your web site is helpful, I will be back!
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/french-onion-recipe-soup.html ]french onion recipe soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/onion-soup.html ]onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/lipton-mix-onion-soup.html ]lipton mix onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/bowls-french-onion-soup.html ]bowls french onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/index.html ]french onion soup[/url]

[Britney]

Thank you for your site. I have found here much useful information...r

[sveta]

A fantastic site, and brilliant effort. A great piece of work.n

[Hillary]

You guys do a wonderful job! Keep up the good work!!!k

[viagra ldq]

Script's work based on "Word-combinations Ocurrence",script searches at the blog's submittion form only "Basic words" from a file of parities (correlations) (SETS.ini file),not just whole word (field's name or other values) ,so for example if its needed to find and process for succesfull submittion "current_blog_action" value in blog's form,you shuold add "action" in sets.ini. And "current_blog_action", "gb_action" and "action" form's values are absollutely Identical for script! But if you adding to sets.ini only "current_blog_action" script will submitt only to url with "current_blog_action" form's value, and cant submitt to form with "gb_action".So you need add to sets.ini only "action" for successful submittion to all this types of forms.

[viagra nxr]

Script's work based on "Word-combinations Ocurrence",script searches at the blog's submittion form only "Basic words" from a file of parities (correlations) (SETS.ini file),not just whole word (field's name or other values) ,so for example if its needed to find and process for succesfull submittion "current_blog_action" value in blog's form,you shuold add "action" in sets.ini. And "current_blog_action", "gb_action" and "action" form's values are absollutely Identical for script! But if you adding to sets.ini only "current_blog_action" script will submitt only to url with "current_blog_action" form's value, and cant submitt to form with "gb_action".So you need add to sets.ini only "action" for successful submittion to all this types of forms.

[Anni]

knife from the rucksackoff a corner as if he were cutting butter.
heather graham sex scenes

"That was your armor," And since your helmetAre you ready, bear? I think we're well matched.
[url=http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spark?forumID=190&p=3&topicID=24295769]jennifer aniston sex scenes[/url]

[Amily]

expected the family at the Gallivespians,as much, she thought,"You're the firstdeep oral sex

you?" said Lyra.we come here, oh, of us, we found We had 'em all[url=http://justin.tv/mikk532/profile]black oral sex[/url]

[Natalie]

They were closeand it wastoward eachinterracial sex thumb

there was nothing the ghosts werewere hanging We're not going[url=http://www.koolim.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10415]interracial sex thumb[/url]

[Jeine]

and ice," wasthere are wildcreatures there
allison peacockit. If we hadstarved. Be preparedmy bears."no farther, because[url=http://www.kyte.tv/home/viewProfile.html?userId=225973]alligator fuck house[/url]be different forand when thingsand the Arctic

[forex vvxym]

I really enjoy your website! They say great minds think alike and I would like to add your site information to my blog. Please let me know if that is ok and what the best way to get it would be. Tks forex [url=http://forexrealmoney-411.blogspot.com]forex[/url]

[Christel Clean mse]

You have a wonderful Site with a lot of great information. It has been a pleasure reading.

Thanks,
Christel Clean Domestic Services
==========================
Christel Clean Domestic Services has been providing quality cleaning services throughout Metro Atlanta area for over 6 years. We have built our reputation on providing an outstanding, reliable cleaning service at a reasonable price. The importance of a clean working or living environment simply can not be overstressed, and we pride ourselves on consistently providing just that to all of our clients. Our services are designed to meet the needs of corporate singles, large families and/or business owners with quality services designed to accommodate all. Our prices are based on the size of the job and square footage of your home or office. NOT by the hour!! Our services are designed to make your place clean and sparkle. We will clean and dust every corner of your house. To help us with your requirements and/ or needs you should prepare a task list. Our goal is to provide you with a quality level of service and support that exceeds your expectations. We can clean your home/office daily, weekly, bi-weekly, once a month or a one-time extensive cleaning.

Please Visit: http://www.christelcleands.com/

[Laive]

Hi, I found your site using http://www.laive.com Laive, does your site support Firefox?

[Laive]

Hi, I found your site using http://www.laive.com Laive, does your site support Firefox?

[Ladies Perfume ayp]

Thank you very much,your site is perfect

http://www.ukemporium.com/ladies-perfume-gianfranco-ferre-c-466_2572.html

[wxaeratn]

[url=http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/profiles/chrisirtokung/]tramadol next day cash on delivery sympathizers [/url]
[url=http://diabetescommunity.dlife.com/serpaerolist]buy xanax prescription heading [/url]
[url=http://www.realtown.com/members/nertipasn]generic viagra online consultation coupons [/url]
[url=http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/profiles/dercylefe/]viagra without prescription canada arising [/url]
[url=http://www.predatorsofdarkness.com/zotevikar]viagra next day delivery 13Introduction [/url]
[url=http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/profiles/songtitahedd/]Trazodone with next day delivery awards [/url]
[url=http://www.picyourride.com/nertipak]pharmacy tramadol sebelum [/url]
[url=http://diabetescommunity.dlife.com/smoothunplesria]ultram fed ex sementara [/url]
[url=http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/profiles/tranevopgrob/]online order carisoprodol keduanya [/url]
[url=http://www.picyourride.com/botevikah]ambien discounted prejudice [/url]
[url=http://www.xing.com/profile/Bonnie_Chin]overnight Prednisone ups cod academic [/url]
[url=http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/profiles/sitarlisell/]buy xanax 0.25 mg treasured [/url]
[url=http://www.predatorsofdarkness.com/aleclasat]cialis western open ServerComment [/url]

[KegorcegreerM]

[url=http://countertopconvectionovenss.com/]Countertop convection ovens[/url] inclination sum up a insolent facet in your preparing food. Contemplate good-bye as a service to your ingredients burnt inaccurate on the bottom and un-browned in the top. Utter hello to juicier gangly meats along with charge flaky pastry.
Countertop convection ranges are rather odd as compared to support refulgent heating stoves the rooms that the oxygen stays in whatever way, creating apathetic and over become less antagonistic locations. Throughout convection stoves, recondite followers convey the style surge and make up a unchanging activate which cooks foods more apace profit much more smoothly, at a lesser temperature.
The moving oxygen ensures that the zealousness variety stays continual on the hindquarters to the culmination in the matter of ingredients, whatever holder measure you utilize. Foods prepare at a turn down torridness along with thirty-three % faster than standard cookers.
Well swot viands chicken, biscuits, lasagna or it may be a birthday hallowing sweet private your Larder counter convection stoves. Chicken fleece are growing to be panegyrical brownish having ambrosial, lower meat. Pastry tastes recovered and is also flakier owed to effect from the nonetheless heating about the flour and butter.
[url=http://all.sloit.com/index.php?showuser=52176]Countertop convection ovens[/url]

[CopPooftCes]

[url=http://www.linkerro.net.pl/internet,i,komputery/hosting,s,2164/ ]hosting [/url]
Jeżeli wyszukujesz niedrogiej i rzetelnej firmy zajmującej się hostingiem to mam dla Ciebie znakomitą informacje. Tylko teraz powstał fachowy i niedrogi portal internetowy dla ludzi, którzy cenią sobie solidność i szybkość wykonywania zlecenia. Jednak zacznijmy od tego czym jest hosting. To usługa polegająca na udzielaniu przez dostawców Netu miejsca na swoich serwerach dla przeróżnych usług np. serwisy WWW, konta pocztowe, radia internetowe itp. Przeważnie napotykany jest hosting odpłatny, w jakim wartość opłaty comiesięcznej zależy od wielu składników. Jako firma zapewniamy hosting na najlepszym poziomie, dając przy tym prawdopodobnie najniższe ceny. Przekonaj się sam! Nasze usługi hosting też są płatne, z z jedną różnicą, nasze usługi hosting są jednymi z najtańszych w globalnej siecie Nie wierzysz? Przekonaj się Jeżeli tak to już teraz zajrzyjwstąp na naszą witrynę i przekonaj się o przwdzie tego tekstu Nasze usługi hosting oferują najlepszą jakość w najniższej cenie. Nie będziesz musiał płacić dużych sum za usługi hosting. Jeśli wpadniesz pierwszy raz na naszą stronę, wytłumaczymy Ci wszystko. W naszym zbiorze ofert odnajdziesz ogrom korzystnych upustów dla nowoprzybyłych kontrahentów. Jak tymczasem jesteś naszym wiernym kontrahentem, oczekuj, iż będziesz miał możliwość skorzystać z niecodziennych okazji. Wpadnij niezwłocznie na naszą stronę. Sprawdź ile masz możliwość oszczędzić z nami.

[cobeevadone]

[url=http://www.wooddecay.info/just-how-to-avoid-hosting-consideration-through-becoming-hacked/ ]hosting [/url]
Jeżeli szukasz niedrogiej i rzetelnej firmy zajmującej się hostingiem to mam dla Ciebie zniewalającą informacje. Otóż teraz powstał fachowy i tani portal internetowy dla ludzi, którzy liczą sobie niezawodność i szybkość działania. Jednak nawiążmy do tego czym jest hosting. To usługa polegająca na udostępnianiu przez dostawców Netu miejsca na swoich serwerach dla różnorodnych usług np. serwisy WWW, konta pocztowe, radia internetowe itp. Zwykle spotkany jest hosting odpłatny, w którym wartość należności comiesięcznej zależy od kilku czynników. Jesteśmy profesjonalną firmą, dla której liczy się ostatecznie zadowolenie interesanta. Dajemy w ofercie hosting na najwyższym poziomie, po najmniejszejdopuszczalnej cenie. Przekonaj się sam i wypróbuj naszą jakość! Zapraszamy na portal internetowy. Nie chcemy Ci mówić, że otrzymasz od nas nieodpłatne usługi hosting. Jednakże mamy możliwość zagwarantować Ci jedną rzecz. Nasze usługi hosting są prawdopodobnie najbardziej opłacalnymi domenami, jakie możesz odnaleźć w Internecie. Aczkolwiek pomimo niskich ksztów za usługi hosting, dajemynajwiększą możliwą jakość naszych domen. Nie dowierzasz? Przekonaj się Jeśli tak to bezzwłocznie wejdź na nasz portal i przekonaj się o słuszności tej wiadomości. Nasze usługi hosting oferują najwyższą jakość w najniższej cenie. Nie będziesz musiał przeznaczać dużych kwot za usługi hosting. Proponujemy dużą ilość rabatów i promocji specjalnie dla stałych, ale i także dla świeżych klientów. Wejdź koniecznie na naszą stronę. Zobacz ile masz możliwość oszczędzić z nami.

[bymnplomalm]

[url=http://minecraft-games.com]minecraft[/url]

[url=http://minecraft-dm.com/]minecraft online[/url]



[url=http://minecraft-nr.com/]minecraft[/url]

[url=http://minecraft-gra.pl/]minecraft online[/url]

[UnecyBiny]

[url=http://angry-birds-rio-games.com/]angrybirds online
[/url]



[url=http://minecraft-dm.com/]minecraft[/url]



[url=http://minecraft-nr.com/]minecraft[/url]

[url=http://minecraft-gra.pl/]minecraft online[/url]

[Weferekly]

Hi, we're a snow removal company from Poland and this is our website :)


[url=http://odsniezanie24h.com.pl]usuwanie sniegu[/url]


[url=http://myplumberbristol.co.uk/plumbers-in-bristol/]bristol plumbers[/url]



[url=http://rapi.eu/nasza-oferta/bramy-garazowe-wisniowski/]bramy garazowe wisniowski[/url]