SMARTCROWD: WRAP: US Mid Term Elections [SMARTCROWD INDEX

November 08, 2006

WRAP: US Mid Term Elections [SMARTCROWD INDEX - DEMOCRATS WIN BOTH HOUSES]

The International Herald Tribune reports "Democrats win control of both houses of Congress for first time since 1994" following Jim Webb's narrow victory against Senator George Allen in Virginia. The Democrats secured the House of Reps on election night, but votes were still being counted for the last few Senate races through most of Wednesday. The news broke just before 9pm, eastern time.

In the end the prediction markets correctly called the battle for the House of Reps (see index trend), where the markets signaled a win for the Democrats, as sentiment shifted against the GOP. The markets did not perform as well in the Senate battle, where the Republicans were consistently favored, notwithstanding GOP prices/ratings softened slightly in recent weeks. The Senate battle was infinitely closer than the markets suggested and in hindsight (where we all have 20:20 vision) a probability rating/price closer to 50 would have been a more accurate gauge.

On the morning of Election Day, the SMARTCROWD Index covering the "Democrats to regain control of the House" markets stood at 73.58 while the GOP stood at just 26.42. At the same time, the "Democrats to regain control of the Senate" markets stood at just 30 while the GOP still commanded a probability rating/price of 70; in that context, the Senate result was a surprise. The markets suggested it was much more likely the Democrats would take control of the House of Reps, while the Republicans would retain control of the Senate. So, one right; one wrong..... Good news for Democrats, bad news for Republicans and perhaps slightly sobering news for prediction market aficionados.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>.

This entry closes our coverage of the mid term elections, unless a posse of hanging chads makes its presence felt very soon.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on November 08, 2006 at 10:50 PM in Politics | Permalink

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007