SMARTCROWD: UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 26.42]

November 04, 2006

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 26.42]

With just 3 days to go the Democrats have nudged further ahead in the prediction markets.

The SMARTCROWD Index covering the "Democrats to regain control of the House" markets, now stands at 73.58 (*at the time of writing this entry), their highest probability rating yet. Meanwhile, the index for the "GOP to retain control of the House" markets has fallen to a low of 26.42, down from a high of 59.02 on September 24th. The Democrats are now firm favorites to regain control, based on the signals from the markets we're watching.

The media is in full swing on the midterm elections. According to Forbes Democrats Appear Set for Election Gains, while the New York Times reports Republicans Resigned to Idea of Big Losses

Expect further jockeying and possible "price" movement over the next couple of days.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	19.00	24,036
WSX	36.59	53,532


SMARTCROWD Index	26.42

Market Trend

The SMARTCROWD Index highlights a clear trend over the past 2 months. Unless very significant news unfolds which reverses current sentiment, the message from the prediction markets is that the Democrats are now firmly favored to win the battle for control of the House. Expect further "price" action between now and Tuesday night, especially on Tuesday as news of polling results are reported by the media.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>.

Watch this space! We'll publish a final update late on Monday evening.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on November 04, 2006 at 02:05 PM in Politics | Permalink

Tags: mid term elections, midterm elections, prediction markets

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007