SMARTCROWD: UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.03]

October 21, 2006

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.03]

The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at 34.03 (*at the time of this entry), down on the week and significantly below its high of 59.02 on September 24th. The SMARTCROWD Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House jumped to a new high of 65.97, signalling the Democrats remain in a favored in the markets we're watching. On September 24th, the index for Democrat control of the House stood at 40.98.

The Washington Post hosts a neat chart with details of all House and Senate races. Canada.Com calls Democrats within reach of seizing control of House in mid term election. Forbes reports on the national security card and its potential impact on polls.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	24.00	9,163
WSX	33.18	74,111
Totals

SMARTCROWD Index	34.03

Market Trend

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats gaining further lead. Unless significant news unfolds which further influences sentiment, the index may be expected to remain relatively stable until the week prior to November 7, when more action may be expected.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>.

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on October 21, 2006 at 04:00 PM in Politics | Permalink

Tags: midterm elections, prediction markets

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007