SMARTCROWD: UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 36.08]

October 15, 2006

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 36.08]

Update

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives moved by almost 10% since we last updated the index on October 3rd. The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at just 36.08 (*at the time of this entry); down almost 10% since our last entry on October 3rd. This contrasts with a high of 59.02 on September 24th.

The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 63.92, the highest probability yet, signalling the Democrats are now favored across the board in the markets we're watching.

Market Trends

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats now are favored to regain control of the House in terms of probabilities.

Prediction Markets

Current markets are as follows. Click below for live prices:

Newsfutures (total volume)	28.00	7,543
WSX (average daily volumes)	37.75	78,986
Totals

SMARTCROWD Index	36.08

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>.

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on October 15, 2006 at 09:15 PM in Politics | Permalink

Tags: midterm elections, Prediction Markets

Comments

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007