SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.67]

The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, has stablized and today stands at 34.67 (*at the time of this entry), up slightly from 34.03 last week.  The corresponding index for the Democrats regaining control of the House fell slightly to 65.33.

The markets we're watching continue to favor the Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives, though the trendlines are now moving towards each other again.

Expect plenty of action in the next week as more news comes into the market and people firm up their views.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	30.00	18,165
WSX	35.43	67,710

SMARTCROWD Index

34.67

Market Trend

  News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 34.03]

The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at 34.03 (*at the time of this entry), down on the week and significantly below its high of 59.02 on September 24th.  The SMARTCROWD Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House jumped to a new high of 65.97, signalling the Democrats remain in a favored in the markets we're watching.  On September 24th, the index for Democrat control of the House stood at 40.98.

The Washington Post hosts a neat chart with details of all House and Senate races.   Canada.Com calls Democrats within reach of seizing control of House in mid term election.  Forbes reports on the national security card and its potential impact on polls.

Featured Markets

Newsfutures	24.00	9,163
WSX	33.18	74,111
Totals
SMARTCROWD Index	34.03

Market Trend

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats gaining further lead.  Unless significant news unfolds which further influences sentiment, the index may be expected to remain relatively stable until the week prior to November 7, when more action may be expected.

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 36.08]

Update

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives moved by almost 10% since we last updated the index on October 3rd. The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at just 36.08 (*at the time of this entry); down almost 10% since our last entry on October 3rd.   This contrasts with a high of 59.02 on September 24th.

The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 63.92, the highest probability yet, signalling the Democrats are now favored across the board in the markets we're watching.

Market Trends

As the following chart shows, the trend of the SMARTCROWD Index since after Labor Day (through today) shows the Democrats now are favored to regain control of the House in terms of probabilities.

   

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Prediction Markets

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Newsfutures (total volume)	28.00	7,543
WSX (average daily volumes)	37.75	78,986
Totals
SMARTCROWD Index	36.08

News

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Pause for Bill

We paused recently to review the impact of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (attached to the unrelated Port Security Bill), that became law on 13th October, 2006. Here's how the Washington Post reported it (note: scroll down the linked page to read the WP article).   This law is already having a significant impact on targeted businesses.

You may notice we’re making some very minor changes in our reporting and coverage.  While we do not believe the legislative changes were even indirectly aimed at information sites like this one, we’ve nonetheless decided to make some small changes, at least in the short to medium term, for the avoidance of doubt.      

We hope you continue to enjoy our posts and the findings useful.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 39.75]

Earlier today, we said to expect more price movement as the campaigning gets tough.  That's exactly what we are now witnessing, with markets reacting quickly and swiftly to rapidly changing sentiment.

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives today recorded significant fluctuations. The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at just 39.75 (at the time of this entry); a significant drop of 8.10 points, or down almost 17%.   This contrasts with a high of 59.02 on September 24th.

The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 60.25, the highest probability yet, signalling the Democrats are now favored across the board in these underlying markets. 

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Market	Last	Volume
Betfair	45.04	2,093
Tradesports	40.90	49,600
Newsfutures	36.00	3, 016
WSX	36.59	44,435
Totals		97,051
SMARTCROWD Index	39.75	51.as;k

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 47.85]

Update:

The markets covering Control of the House of Representatives have responded to recent events and current sentiment by marking prices for the GOP retaining control of the House of Reps down.   The SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP controlled House after November 7th, now stands at 47.85 (at the time of this entry); the first time it has measured below 50, the mid-point level.  The Index for the Democrats regaining control of the House conversely jumped to 52.15 giving the Democrat Party a small but clear lead. 

Expect more jockeying and price movement as the weeks unfold and the campaigning gets tough.

Current markets are as follows.  Click below for live prices:

Market	Last	Volume
Betfair	42.30	2,062
Tradesports	46.90	48,000
Newsfutures	39.00	2,915
WSX	47.50	44,435
Totals		95,350
SMARTCROWD Index	47.85	51.as;k

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo.  Views from

the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

   

For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>. 

Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD