SMARTCROWD: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate

September 09, 2006

US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate

Will the Republican Party (GOP) still control the House of Representatives after the US mid term elections on November 7th? Will the GOP still control the Senate? The clear signals from the prediction markets and the media is that the GOP has good reason to be concerned about retaining control of the House; sentiment suggests the GOP will retain control of the Senate. Expect further price activity as we move toward November 7.

Tradesports: "GOP to retain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 39 (current bid 39) with 35,500 contracts traded, while the "GOP to retain control of the Senate" last traded at 79.6 with 14,600 contracts traded. Current "GOP to retain House" prices are below:

Newsfutures: "Democrats to regain control of House", at the time of this entry, last traded at 72 with 1,165 contracts traded, a small fraction of what's been traded on Tradesports (for money), while "Democrats to regain control of the Senate" last traded at just 10 with 28,445 contracts traded. Current prices are below.

Democrats to take control of the House, at Newsfutures

Democrats to take control of the Senate, at Newsfutures

We'll deliver a weekly update in the run up to the elections, bringing you the latest in the markets (including new market Casual Observer & perhaps soon the WSX) and news about the politics that shapes them. Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

Watch this space! From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

Posted on September 09, 2006 at 02:20 PM in Politics | Permalink

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007