SMARTCROWD: UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 58.05]

September 16, 2006

UPDATE: US Mid Term Elections: The battle for the House and Senate [SMARTCROWD INDEX* GOP HOUSE 58.05]

The markets for "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded some material swings this past week, which marked the 5th anniversary of 9/11, giving the GOP numerous platforms to press home the Republican message. The markets, especially Tradesports, responded by marking up the chances of the GOP retaining control of the House. Expect more price swings over the next 7 weeks as opinion shapers and politics shift into top gear.

This week, we're also launching the SMARTCROWD Index measuring sentiment across the markets. *At the time of this entry the inaugural Index for GOP HOUSE stands at 58.05.

Prediction markets

Tradesports - at the time of this entry, the GOP to control House was priced at 53.5 with 38,600 contracts traded. Latest prices below.

Newsfutures - at the time of this entry, the Democrats to control House was priced at 60 on exceptionally light total volume of 1,358 contracts. Latest prices below.

WSX: Trading at the Washington Stock Exchange kicked off last week. At the time of this entry, "GOP control of the House" was priced at 62.35 with an average daily 47,704 contracts traded. Full market details here <House06>.

SMARTCROWD Index GOP HOUSE = 58.05 The index is a weighted last price and total volume averaged across the above markets. Other underlying markets may be added to broaden the measurement of market sentiment.

Control of the Senate.

The markets in “Control of the Senate” were essentially unchanged with all markets signaling the GOP is highly likely to retain control of the Senate.

Latest news here <Google Search GOP> <Google Search DEM>. Facts & figures <theGreenPapers> and Yahoo. Views from the <CenterforPolitics> and from the blogs <Google Blog Search>, and again <Google Blog Search 'buzz'>.

Click here for <original entry>. Watch this space!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Posted on September 16, 2006 at 12:48 PM in Politics | Permalink

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SMARTCROWD Consensus Index

Updated December 1st, 2007
GOP NOM Thompson (F) 7.88% +
GOP NOM Romney 28.41% -
GOP NOM McCain 6.5% -
GOP NOM Giuliani 39.10% -
DEM NOM Edwards 8.63% +
DEM NOM Obama 22.71% -
DEM NOM Clinton 64.36% -
GOP President '08 37.74% +
DEM President '08 62.15% =

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November 2007