Election '08 - More hands to play?

Campaigning for the '08 Presidential Election is well and truly underway.  Both parties have held their first round debates, which attracted plenty of media coverage.  Here's how NPR.Org reported the GOP debate.

Prediction Markets

There's been some modest changes in the prediction markets. since we last calculated the index in mid April. According to the SMARTCROWD index, Hillary Clinton still leads the Democrat race with a rating of 41.12%, followed closely by Barack Obama at 33.92%.  John Edwards slipped back a few points to 10.35%.   Refer to the probability chart*, below left, comparing April and May standings.

      

                                                   

The candidates for the GOP nominee are bunched much tighter, with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain now neck and neck at 28.36% and 28.33% respectively, with Mitt Romney trailing a close third at 21.69%.  Refer to the probability chart*, right, which again compares data for this month and last.

John McCain clearly gained a couple of points at Rudy Giuliani's and Mitt Romney's expense, since we last measured the index based on a range of prediction market prices/probabilities*.

The SMARTCROWD Index for the major contracts <click here> is shown in the top left panel.

There's likely to be some changes in the markets over the next few weeks as participants respond to statements by the candidates or to events they're involved in.  Expect more significant movements if either Mike Bloomberg or Al Gore (or dare we say both) declare an intention to run.

So, what's new?

This past week, there's been plenty of speculation that New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, might enter the '08 race for the White House as an independent.  Here's how The Washington Post and The New York Observer each covered the buzz. Right now, Inkling Markets is the only PM covering "Bloomberg to run as an independent". While trading is thin, at the time of this post, Inkling quoted a probability of 44.3% on low volume of about 600 contracts.  If media speculation continues, you can expect other PMs to float similar contracts, and for volumes generally to increase.                     

While not new, the latent speculation continues to bubble up about Al Gore.  The New York Times Magazine, this weekend, dedicated four pages to AG under the title "Al Gore has big plans".    The article included the following Q&A..... A. “I’m not issuing a Shermanesque statement because that’s not where I am. I’m not ruling it out for all time. Although I cannot presently foresee any circumstances, such circumstances could emerge.”  Q. “And such circumstances could emerge in 2008?”  A. “It’s extremely unlikely, but not impossible.”   

Larry King will be interviewing Al Gore on Tuesday May 22nd.  The LKL trailers are teasing the LKL audience about the choice facing Al Gore; continuing to spearhead global warming awareness and strategies to address climate change, or returning to Washington.  The markets seem to think he'll choose the former, but stranger things have happened in politics. The long standing WSX contract for Al Gore as President trades at just 11.41.

Elsewhere

As we noted in our previous post, internet media giants are actively embracing Election 08, just as the candidates are using this ubiquitous medium to reach new communities.  Here, the LA Times explains how and why MySpace and YouTube will be active in the Presidential Election. 

This Capital 9 News video and this "Democrats pushing the e-frontier" article also provide a good super-brief background regarding this new trend. 

That's it for this post.  Until next time....

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

* the SMARTCROWD Index is compiled from data (recorded Saturday May 19th) from the following markets: Inkling Markets, Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, Newsfutures and WSX.  The comparable data for April was compiled from the exact same markets.

Comments

[Fast exchanger]

Great work guys. Your web site is helpful, I will be back!
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/french-onion-recipe-soup.html ]french onion recipe soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/onion-soup.html ]onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/lipton-mix-onion-soup.html ]lipton mix onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/bowls-french-onion-soup.html ]bowls french onion soup[/url]
[url=http://searchgoodsonline.info/french-onion-soup/index.html ]french onion soup[/url]

[Britney]

Thank you for your site. I have found here much useful information...r

[sveta]

A fantastic site, and brilliant effort. A great piece of work.n

[Hillary]

You guys do a wonderful job! Keep up the good work!!!k

[viagra ldq]

Script's work based on "Word-combinations Ocurrence",script searches at the blog's submittion form only "Basic words" from a file of parities (correlations) (SETS.ini file),not just whole word (field's name or other values) ,so for example if its needed to find and process for succesfull submittion "current_blog_action" value in blog's form,you shuold add "action" in sets.ini. And "current_blog_action", "gb_action" and "action" form's values are absollutely Identical for script! But if you adding to sets.ini only "current_blog_action" script will submitt only to url with "current_blog_action" form's value, and cant submitt to form with "gb_action".So you need add to sets.ini only "action" for successful submittion to all this types of forms.

[viagra nxr]

Script's work based on "Word-combinations Ocurrence",script searches at the blog's submittion form only "Basic words" from a file of parities (correlations) (SETS.ini file),not just whole word (field's name or other values) ,so for example if its needed to find and process for succesfull submittion "current_blog_action" value in blog's form,you shuold add "action" in sets.ini. And "current_blog_action", "gb_action" and "action" form's values are absollutely Identical for script! But if you adding to sets.ini only "current_blog_action" script will submitt only to url with "current_blog_action" form's value, and cant submitt to form with "gb_action".So you need add to sets.ini only "action" for successful submittion to all this types of forms.

[Anni]

knife from the rucksackoff a corner as if he were cutting butter.
heather graham sex scenes

"That was your armor," And since your helmetAre you ready, bear? I think we're well matched.
[url=http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spark?forumID=190&p=3&topicID=24295769]jennifer aniston sex scenes[/url]

[Amily]

expected the family at the Gallivespians,as much, she thought,"You're the firstdeep oral sex

you?" said Lyra.we come here, oh, of us, we found We had 'em all[url=http://justin.tv/mikk532/profile]black oral sex[/url]

[Natalie]

They were closeand it wastoward eachinterracial sex thumb

there was nothing the ghosts werewere hanging We're not going[url=http://www.koolim.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10415]interracial sex thumb[/url]

[Jeine]

and ice," wasthere are wildcreatures there
allison peacockit. If we hadstarved. Be preparedmy bears."no farther, because[url=http://www.kyte.tv/home/viewProfile.html?userId=225973]alligator fuck house[/url]be different forand when thingsand the Arctic

[forex vvxym]

I really enjoy your website! They say great minds think alike and I would like to add your site information to my blog. Please let me know if that is ok and what the best way to get it would be. Tks forex [url=http://forexrealmoney-411.blogspot.com]forex[/url]

[Christel Clean mse]

You have a wonderful Site with a lot of great information. It has been a pleasure reading.

Thanks,
Christel Clean Domestic Services
==========================
Christel Clean Domestic Services has been providing quality cleaning services throughout Metro Atlanta area for over 6 years. We have built our reputation on providing an outstanding, reliable cleaning service at a reasonable price. The importance of a clean working or living environment simply can not be overstressed, and we pride ourselves on consistently providing just that to all of our clients. Our services are designed to meet the needs of corporate singles, large families and/or business owners with quality services designed to accommodate all. Our prices are based on the size of the job and square footage of your home or office. NOT by the hour!! Our services are designed to make your place clean and sparkle. We will clean and dust every corner of your house. To help us with your requirements and/ or needs you should prepare a task list. Our goal is to provide you with a quality level of service and support that exceeds your expectations. We can clean your home/office daily, weekly, bi-weekly, once a month or a one-time extensive cleaning.

Please Visit: http://www.christelcleands.com/

[Laive]

Hi, I found your site using http://www.laive.com Laive, does your site support Firefox?

[Laive]

Hi, I found your site using http://www.laive.com Laive, does your site support Firefox?

[Ladies Perfume ayp]

Thank you very much,your site is perfect

http://www.ukemporium.com/ladies-perfume-gianfranco-ferre-c-466_2572.html