Campaigning for the '08 Presidential Election is well and truly underway. Both parties have held their first round debates, which attracted plenty of media coverage. Here's how NPR.Org reported the GOP debate.
There's been some modest changes in the prediction markets. since we last calculated the index in mid April. According to the SMARTCROWD index, Hillary Clinton still leads the Democrat race with a rating of 41.12%, followed closely by Barack Obama at 33.92%. John Edwards slipped back a few points to 10.35%. Refer to the probability chart*, below left, comparing April and May standings.
The candidates for the GOP nominee are bunched much tighter, with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain now neck and neck at 28.36% and 28.33% respectively, with Mitt Romney trailing a close third at 21.69%. Refer to the probability chart*, right, which again compares data for this month and last.
John McCain clearly gained a couple of points at Rudy Giuliani's and Mitt Romney's expense, since we last measured the index based on a range of prediction market prices/probabilities*.
The SMARTCROWD Index for the major contracts <click here> is shown in the top left panel.
There's likely to be some changes in the markets over the next few weeks as participants respond to statements by the candidates or to events they're involved in. Expect more significant movements if either Mike Bloomberg or Al Gore (or dare we say both) declare an intention to run.
So, what's new?
This past week, there's been plenty of speculation that New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, might enter the '08 race for the White House as an independent. Here's how The Washington Post and The New York Observer each covered the buzz. Right now, Inkling Markets is the only PM covering "Bloomberg to run as an independent". While trading is thin, at the time of this post, Inkling quoted a probability of 44.3% on low volume of about 600 contracts. If media speculation continues, you can expect other PMs to float similar contracts, and for volumes generally to increase.
While not new, the latent speculation continues to bubble up about Al Gore. The New York Times Magazine, this weekend, dedicated four pages to AG under the title "Al Gore has big plans". The article included the following Q&A..... A. “I’m not issuing a Shermanesque statement because that’s not where I am. I’m not ruling it out for all time. Although I cannot presently foresee any circumstances, such circumstances could emerge.” Q. “And such circumstances could emerge in 2008?” A. “It’s extremely unlikely, but not impossible.”
Larry King will be interviewing Al Gore on Tuesday May 22nd. The LKL trailers are teasing the LKL audience about the choice facing Al Gore; continuing to spearhead global warming awareness and strategies to address climate change, or returning to Washington. The markets seem to think he'll choose the former, but stranger things have happened in politics. The long standing WSX contract for Al Gore as President trades at just 11.41.
As we noted in our previous post, internet media giants are actively embracing Election 08, just as the candidates are using this ubiquitous medium to reach new communities. Here, the LA Times explains how and why MySpace and YouTube will be active in the Presidential Election.
That's it for this post. Until next time....
From the crew at SMARTCROWD.
* the SMARTCROWD Index is compiled from data (recorded Saturday May 19th) from the following markets: Inkling Markets, Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, Newsfutures and WSX. The comparable data for April was compiled from the exact same markets.