The markets for "Control of the House of Representatives" recorded modest changes during the past 7 days.
At the time* of this entry, the SMARTCROWD Index for a GOP HOUSE stands at 59.02, up 7.77 on seven days ago. The index, which measures sentiment across markets, is a weighted average price based on last prices and volumes reported at Betfair, Newsfutures, Tradesports and WSX. See footnotes.
Note: The prices below were at the time of this entry, unless specifically mentioned.
Betfair - the "GOP to control the House" last traded at 53.7 and was quoted at 48.5 bid and 53.7 ask, while "Democrats to control the House" contract last traded at 51.8 and was offered (ask) at 51.8, with no current bid. Total "volume" is 5,701 across both markets.
Casual Observer - over at Casual Observer, the CO market index for Control of the House has the Republicans standing at 46.51, with Democrats at 54.29.
Newsfutures - the "GOP to control House" was last traded at 36 with 1,568 contracts traded. Latest prices below (in past month view).
Tradesports - the "GOP to control House" was last traded at 58 with 42,700 contracts traded. Latest prices below (in past year view).
So the crowds at Casual Observer and Newsfutures currently favour Democrats to win the House of Representatives, while the crowds at Tradesports and WSX suggest the Republicans will retain control of the House of Reps. The SMARTCROWD Index measures the Republicans slightly ahead.
This is a very close contest and much too close to call now. Expect further price swings as we approach November 7th, especially during the last 10 days of the campaign and, in the interim, if any major national or worldwide events occur that could influence or affect the outcome.
For the original entry on the Mid Term Elections <click here>.
From the crew at SMARTCROWD.
Footnotes: 1) Betfair pricing is also now incoporated into the SMARTCROWD Index, resulting in a recalculation of the GOP House index from 59.13 to 59.02. The index now measures sentiment across four markets. 2) Many thanks to Chris F Masse for his guidance regarding certain pricing elements for this entry.