SMARTCROWD

Message from Current TV

Documentary filmmakers and journalists--are you tired of election coverage?

Well help us change it. Current TV is trying to change the focus of media coverage to the issues, not the candidates. So we're asking anyone who can to produce a mini-documentary (3-7 minutes long) about a major election issue--healthcare, economy, education, etc. Tell us a fair, accurate story about how one of these issues affects you or your community.

If you upload your piece to our website by Dec. 15th, you'll be considered to join the Current TV team at the New Hampshire primaries, as a paid producer on the ground! And Current TV could buy your piece to air on our international cable channel.

So get in touch with us at currenttvjournalism@gmail.com and get those cameras rolling!"

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, November 11th, 2007.

The SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict; and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings, based on prices on November 11th, and the relevant spreads (spreads explained) are as follows.

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 72.15% +, spread 4.34 points

08 DEM Obama 15.86% -, spread 4.60 points

08 DEM Edwards 5.66% -, spread 2.15 points

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 42.87% +, spread 4.25 points

08 GOP Romney 32.15% +, spread 1.96 points

08 GOP Thompson (F) 7.49% -, spread 4.10 points

08 GOP McCain 7.85% +, spread 5.21 points

Party for President

08 GOP President 37.68% -, spread 3.56 points

08 DEM President 62.15% +, spread 1.41 points

Analytics

We're still kicking around some ideas for new analytics/metrics that measure prediction markets, poll data and news. We hope to release this before year end, assuming we are confident that the outputs add value and increase the breadth, depth and richness of what makes up the SMARTCROWD consensus index. Currently the index is calculated solely from prediction market data.

News

There's been some very significant changes in prediction market ratings since October 7th, when we last reported our ratings. The most significant changes are the extent to which Hillary Clinton has further consolidated her lead, from 65.76% to 72.15%, and the extent to which Fred Thompson has slipped in the prediction market ratings, from 21.84% to 7.49%. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have improved their ratings from 37.17% to 42.87% and 25.62% to 32.15% respectively.

Here's some interesting articles that give a snapshot of what's happening in the nomination races.

Who will take on Hillary?, The Economist, November 1st, 2007
Poll: A year before '08 election, public's theme is discontent, ABC News, November 4th, 2007
Clinton on debate: 'I wasn't at my best', CNN Political Ticker, November 6th, 2007
Ahead of the boys. A whiff of hope for Hillary Clinton's rivals. The Economist, November 7th, 2007
How Much Did Thompson's Abortion Comments Hurt Him?, NRO, November 8th, 2007
Time running short for Obama, AFP, November 10th
Democrats blitz Iowa to rev up support, AP, November 11th, 2007
Republicans 2008: Giuliani 33%, McCain 16%, Angus Reid Global Monitor, November 11th, 2007
Huckabee, Paul discount front-runners, United Press International, November 11th, 2007

Our daily newsclip page has a broad list of relevant articles.

For latest news, click <DEM news> and <GOP news>

Other news

There was one piece of news from Google that we're very excited about. It looks as if Google may soon aggregate prediction market data in the same way that it augments relevant articles with stock quotes and links. This will be very powerful and will significantly increase the awareness of prediction markets. Go Google! We'll obviously have to start focusing on more meaningful metrics!

This will be a great development. Awareness of prediction markets has progressively increased over the past 6-12 months, & especially since elements of established media have started to take interest.

That's it for this time.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, October 7th, 2007.

The SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict; and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings, based on prices on October 7th:

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 65.76% -

08 DEM Obama 17.96% -

08 DEM Edwards 5.95% -

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 37.17% +

08 GOP Romney 25.62% +

08 GOP Thompson (F) 21.84% -

08 GOP McCain 7.12% +

Party for President

08 GOP President 38.46% -

08 DEM President 61.13% +

Comparing Polls and Prediction Market data?

Here's a new chart comparing poll data against prediction market data for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over a 3+ month period.

Polling data, which is based on publicly information available at Angus Reid Global Monitor, is usually generated from the question "who will you vote for?" As such, polling is a % measurement of how respondents will vote, one way or another.

The prediction market (PM) data, by stark contrast, is generated from traders who are each trying to answer the question "who do you think will win (and how certain are you of the outcome, based on a scale of 1-100)?"

There are, of course, no surprises here in terms of leader or trailer. What is more interesting though is the correlation betwen poll data and PM data over time. We'll be taking a closer look at this over the coming months.

Other important data

Clearly, the media influences sentiment which in turn generates price changes in prediction markets. We'll be taking a closer look at this third data set, comparing it against poll data and PM data, over the coming months, to look for different correlations.

As a teaser, we took a look at a couple of new sources of data. First, take a look at Wonkosphere which measures "buzz" in the blogosphere; good, bad and neutral. According to current data, Hillary Clinton is generating 25% of the buzz across the top 12 candidates, while Obama scores just under 10%. Second, take a look at Hitwise a website that monitors the traffic to different candidates sites. By this measurement, Obama has a clear lead.

Through analysis like this we hope to produce some useful analytics!

News

This weekend the FT ran Obama woos Iowa but Clinton surges, while the Economist ran the line The American presidency is Hillary Clinton's to lose. But that doesn't make her a shoo-in just yet.

Right now, the polls, the prediction markets and the media all seem to be aligned in terms of how the Democratic nomination might unfold.

Next week we'll take a look at the Republican data.

For the latest news on Election '08, click here.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Can anyone catch Hillary? *

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, September, 23rd, 2007. 

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD CONSENSUS INDEX

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 66.0% +

08 DEM Obama 18.77% -

08 DEM Edwards 6.88% -

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 35.11% +

08 GOP Romney 25.46% +

08 GOP Thompson (F) 24.68% -

08 GOP McCain 6.5% +

Party for President

08 GOP President 40.16% +

08 DEM President 59.54% +

General

Can anyone catch Hillary? * thanks to Real Clear Politics

Latest 2008 Presidential Election news.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

The Iowa Straw Poll

Mitt Romney won the Iowa straw poll this weekend with 31.5% of the vote, ahead of second placed Mike Huckabee with 18.1%.

The final result contained a few surprises.

The media naturally spun the outcome in different ways.

The National Public Radio lead with Iowa straw poll yields limited victory for Romney, while Australia's Sydney Morning Herald took a more irreverent view separating the wheat from the chaff. The Boston Herald reported that Romney did not believe his victory was a hollow one.

Time Magazine's What Iowa’s straw poll tells the GOP provides a more in-depth view.

While Romney was widely expected to win in Iowa, Mike Huckabee's second place is attracting attention, lifting his national profile. According to USA Today Huckabee spent just $58 per vote for 2nd place in Iowa. This is likely to keep him in the campaign for a while yet. His odds of dropping out by December 31st, dropped from 67.5% to 50% at Intrade.

Rudy Giuiani, John McCain and Fred Thompson all skipped Iowa.

McCain instead focused his attention on New Hampshire.

There's speculation that Tommy Thompson may now scrap his Presidential bid following his 6th place showing. While Mr (T) Thompson may be looking for the exit door, there's talk brewing about Newt Gingrich wanting in.

Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the national polls.

Here's how the Angus Reid Global Monitor reported findings on August 12th.

Prediction Markets

According to the prediction markets, Giuliani continues to lead the GOP candidates in this format too.

Giuliani has a SMARTCROWD rating of 31.74%, followed by Fred Thompson on 26.01% and Mitt Romney at 25.18% (trending up), following his victory in Iowa.

John McCain continues to score in the single digits with a rating of 6.27%.

At Intrade, Newt Gingrich is rated at 35.5% (on small volume), suggesting some believe he might actually enter the GOP nomination battle.

Hillary sees off Obama

In the Democratic nominee markets, Hillary Clinton further extended her lead. She now has a commanding SMARTCROWD rating of 55.65% (and trending up). According to the markets she's the clear favorite to become the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee.

Barack Obama's rating slipped in the same markets; his SMARTCROWD rating is now below 30%, currently standing at 25.27% (trending down). See chart.

John Edwards scored 8.25%

Two's company, three's a crowd

Last week, we wrote about the prospect of (perhaps only a slim chance today), the big 3 contenders for the White House in 2008, being Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg (if he annouces he's running); all from New York. The New York Times article No, It Wouldn't Happen. Couldn't. No Way considers this prospect in depth.

That's it for this week's coverage.

Interesting times, indeed.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Bloomberg - is he running?

Speculation continues about New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, and whether he'll run as an Independent in '08. Ed Koch of the Washington Post reckons he will and explains why in his article I Like Mike. So Will You.

News outlets also reported that former Democratic Senator Sam Nunn (Georgia) and Bloomberg talked about the need for an independent challenge in 2008. Read Not Running Mike is Talking from the New York Post and Bloom and I talked about Prez race: pol from the Daily News. The International Herald Tribune covered it too.

Bloomberg, however, has consistently denied he is a candidate.

In the prediction markets, Bloomberg is given a 41.5% probability of running at FT Predict, and 51.3% in thin trading at Inkling Markets, reflecting the constant speculation and suggesting i) it won't be a much of a surprise if he does run and ii) that traders and pundits don't place much value on his denials; making it more of a question of when, not if, in their minds.

Expect this cat-and-mouse game to continue for a while; at least until its clear who the Democratic and GOP nominees are going to be.

Iowa poll has Democrats all tied up

According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll in Iowa, released August 3rd, the leading Democratic contenders are virtually tied in their race for the Presidential nomination in Iowa. Listen here to CNN's podcast explaining the findings.

The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire Primary are litmus tests for the national campaign and a defeat in either or both states can have a damaging impact on a candidate.

The Iowa poll is at odds with national polls. Here's how the Angus Reid Global Monitor reported findings on August 4th.

In the prediction markets, Hillary Clinton currently has a SMARTCROWD rating of 50.09%, extending her lead over Barack Obama whose equivalent rating is 30.58% (refer chart). John Edwards' SMARTCROWD rating is 7.85%. Hillary Clinton is now the clear favorite for the Democratic nominee, making her a genuine contender for the White House.

Giuliani draws clear on the GOP side (or does he?)

On the other side of politics, Rudy Giuliani secured a narrow lead among the GOP contenders, but Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are still in contention for Republican nomination. Here's how the Angus Reid Global Monitor reported findings on August 6th. Demonstrating how open the Republican race is, however, the Washington Post-ABC News poll focusing on Iowa, favored Mitt Romney.

In the prediction markets, Rudy Giuliani has a SMARTCROWD rating of 33.77%. He leads Fred Thompson at 29.08% and Mitt Romney at 21.78%.

The International Herald Tribune ran the article: Rivals for Republican nomination for US President seek distance from Bush, following tonight's GOP debate in Iowa.

New York, New York - two's company, three's a crowd

How will New Yorkers and Americans react to the possibility - perhaps remote at this point in time - that New Yorkers Hillary Clinton, Rudy Guiliani, and Mike Bloomberg might be the last ones standing in the '08 race for the White House? Will it happen? Will it matter? What's the probability of Bloomberg (I), Clinton (D) and Giuliani (R) being the primary challengers after the DEM and GOP nominations, and after Mayor Bloomberg makes up his mind for certain? Perhaps about 10%, right now, based on current probabilities. We'd welcome hearing a more accurate calculation and/or seeing a prediction market contract to give us a regular signal.

Interesting times, indeed.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08: Clinton & Obama - rivals or running mates?

Following the CNN/YouTube debate last Monday, the Clinton and Obama camps launched a spat about foreign diplomacy, generating plenty of media coverage. While their respective camps were going at each other, others piled in too, kicking up the dust.

In the prediction markets, Hillary Clinton strengthened her lead with a SMARTCROWD rating (trending up) of 46.3%. See chart, above. Barack Obama still trails Clinton with a rating of 33.31%, slightly lower than his early-July rating following his stellar fund raising performance. John Edwards' rating remains in single digits.

Surprisingly (or was it?), a lot of fuss was made about a Washington Post article that referred to Hillary's neckline, sending political commentators and the media wading into a "cleavage" debate, generating newsprint, TV and blog coverage around the world.

Elsewhere, according to CNN, Newt Gingrich today predicted that Barack Obama would be Hillary Clinton's running mate in '08. Its obviously too early to tell whether this is an insightful prediction, or simply adding political fuel to the fire, or both. But the angle, not surprisingly, is getting coverage 1, 2.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the Republican nominee race still remains open. According to the prediction markets, Rudy Giuliani leads with a SMARTCROWD rating of 32.52% (trending up), ahead of Fred Thompson at 29.37% (trending down) and Mitt Romney at 21.38% (trendiing up). John McCain again scores just 7.2%.

New York Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, continued to downplay suggestions that he will run, yet he still commands a probability rating of 33.4% (trending up) at FT Predict.

Interesting times, indeed.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

(Note: we're releasing this article without links (and with apologies), due to a technical hitch. We'll repair these asap, as there's some great content out there!).

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Prediction Markets

Barack Obama is making up ground on Hillary Clinton following his outstanding fund raising efforts. Barack Obama raised a stunning $32.5m in the second quarter of this year, considerably more than Hillary Clinton and more than the top two Republicans combined, the Economist reported in its election update "Of cash and crushes". The gap between Hillary and Obama, whose SMARTCROWD ratings are 43.24% (trending down) and 34.49% (trending up) respectively, is now only 8.75 percentage points. See the chart, above right. At Intrade, the gap between the two rivals was just 3.8 points, while at the Iowa Electronic Markets it was 9.1 points.

In the GOP nominee markets, John McCain's probability rating continues to wane. McCain's SMARTCROWD rating is now just 7.2%, which compares unfavorably with a rating of 28.57% in mid-May. That's a staggering change in sentiment. CNN reported McCain camp to undergo significant shakeup earlier this week.

According to the prediction markets, Fred Thompson and Rudy Guilliani continue to lead the GOP nominee race, with SMARTCROWD ratings of 34.04% and 30.09% respectively. Mitt Romney's equivalent rating is 18.74%.

According to FT Predict, the likelihood of Al Gore joining the race is 22% (Gore price chart), while the likelihood of Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent is 40.5% (Bloomberg price chart). At Inkling Markets, the corresponding prices were 47.3% 11.2% and 11.2% 47.3% respectively*. At Inkling Markets, the Gore price looks to have fallen following reports that Gore (still) has no interest in running.

Expect further movements in the markets over the next 12 months as campaigning, ahead of the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, moves into full swing!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.
* amended PM 7/7/07

America's Cup: Update

Alinghi hoists the America's Cup for a second time.

Swiss yacht Alinghi successfully defended the America's Cup against New Zealand's Emirates Team after a photo-finish win in Race 7 today, taking the match series 5-2.

In the run-up, New Zealand's Emirates Team defeated yachts from around the world, including Larry Ellison's BMW Oracle Racing, winning the Louis Vuitton Cup and the right to challenge Alinghi for the America's Cup, but the Kiwis failed at the last hurdle with the Swiss team proving too strong. The bitter irony is that Alinghi was skippered by Brad Butterworth from New Zealand.

After putting the America's Cup defeat behind them, all New Zealanders will be pinning their sporting hopes on the mighty All Blacks who go into the Rugby World Cup tournament in France, in September, as overwhelming favorites. At Inkling Markets, the All Blacks are rated with a 51% probability of winning the Rugby World Cup. At Tradesports, the All Blacks are quoted at 68-73, on nil volume.

New Zealand is one seriously competitive sporting nation, especially given its population is just under 4.2 million.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

America's Cup: Update

Swiss yacht Alinghi is now just one win way from defending the America's Cup following its win in Race 6 over New Zealand's Emirates Team earlier today.

At Tradesports, Alinghi jumped more than 20 percentage points to 88, while Emirates dropped a similar amount to just 12.5.

The Kiwis are in trouble and now need a small miracle to win, after Alinghi notched up its third win in a row to lead 4-2, in the best of nine Match series. The Guardian described it well Teams try to stay focused as the end of the America's Cup looms. It could be all over tomorrow, Sunday, if the Swiss team wins, making it the first European team to defend the trophy. More news, here.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

What's new in the prediction markets?

Michael Bloomberg got plenty of media coverage this week.

Even though Bloomberg continues to say he’s not running in ’08, the media continues to speculate after he dropped his Republican Party affiliation to register as an independent. Here’s how the FT covered it "Bloomberg hints at run for President" on Wednesday. The Economist reported “New York’s mayor flirts with an independent bid for the presidency”, while today, The New York Times ran the front page article “President? or Kingmaker?”; note, now behind NYT's subscription page. The prediction markets covering "Bloomberg to run as an Independent" responded by marking Bloomberg up. Inkling Markets moved the New York Mayor up to 47.8%, while over at Intrade, the probability rating was 45.3%, having reached a high of 50%.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton has cemented her lead as the likely Democratic nominee. The SMARTCROWD Index for Clinton to become "the Democratic Party nominee" now stands at 47.51%. Barack Obama has slipped slightly in the same markets, with a SMARTCROWD Index rating just below 30%, on a single point spread, demonstrating a consistent view across the markets we’re monitoring. Both candidates continue to command considerable coverage. The Economist ran this heading "Disliked, but still most likely" in the Lexington article Pillorying Hillary. The FT summed up Obama’s predicament, like this "Obama tries harder, but still No.2". John Edwards’ campaign is slipping, if you believe the ratings across the various prediction markets.

GOP

In the GOP race, according to the prediction markets, Fred Thompson and Rudi Giulliani are neck and neck with SMARTCROWD Index ratings of 27.96% and 27.03% respectively. There’s still plenty to fight for in this race….. Mitt Romney runs third with 21%, while John McCain, who has slipped significantly in recent weeks, is now just 13.6%. The polling group Angus Reid Global Monitor has similar findings.

General

Ratings for a GOP President in 2008 stand at 40% and 58% for a Democrat President.

For the latest SMARTCROWD Index ratings for the leading GOP and DEM candidates <click here>.

That's it for this week!

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

Election '08: SMARTCROWD Update

The Democrat and Republican nominees each participated in another round of debates this week.

Here's how the UK's Guardian newspaper covered the Democrat's debate, while Forbes covered it in a more serious tone.

Here's how TheStreet.com reported the Republican debate, while the Washington Post ran this article "GOP hopefuls keep distance from Bush"

SMARTCROWD Index

The SMARTCROWD Probability Index calculations currently *stand at:

Clinton DEM Nom. 41.73%, up 1.5%
Obama DEM Nom, 34.34%, unchanged**
Edwards DEM Nom, 9.04%, down 1.6%
Guilliani, GOP Nom, 26.22%, unchanged**
McCain, GOP Nom, 20.05%, down 1.7%
Romney, GOP Nom, 23.32%, up 0.5%
Thompson (F), GOP Nom, 22.32% (first rating)

DEM Pres, 59%, unchanged
GOP Pres, 41%, unchanged

Spreads

Going forward, SMARTCROWD will periodically publish spread calculations. The spread calculation measures the gap between the lowest and highest probability ratings across the various markets that make up the SMARTCROWD Index. The lower the spread calculation, the closer prices correlate across the various markets. This is generally a good indication of a solid price/probability rating. The larger the spread the greater the pricing anomoly. This is one reason we created an index in the first place.

A large spread does not automatially mean prices are being artificially pumped or dumped in any particular market. It could mean that one market is better informed than the others. Such discrepancies definitely arise when comparing play money markets (even where they have many hundred people participating) against real money markets, since play money markets often apply relatively higher ratings across a broader range of contracts in that market.

The opening SMARTCROWD Spreads currently* stand as follows (please note spreads change constantly with changes in prices/probabilities in the underlying prediction markets):

Clinton DEM Nom, Spread 14 pts, WSX/IEM @ 51.5% vs Inkling @ 37.5% (1.8 pts in "for-money" markets)
Obama DEM Nom, Spread 24.5 pts, WSX @ 54.98% vs Intrade @ 30.4% (1 pt)
Edwards DEM Nom, Spread 15 pts, WSX @ 21.42% vs Intrade @ 6.1% (0.6 pt)
Guilliani GOP Nom, Spread 23.5 pts, WSX @43.78% vs IEM @ 20.3% (4.3 pts)
Romney GOP Nom, Spread 32.5 pts, WSX @ 42.56% vs Inkling @10.1% (0.7 pt)
McCain GOP, Spread 21.3 pts, WSX @ 34.3 vs IEM @ 13% (0.5 pt)
Thompson GOP, Spread 9.9 pts, Intrade @ 27.9% vs Inkling @ 18% (n/a)

DEM President, Spread 11.6 pts, Newsfutures @ 52% vs Inkling @ 63.6% (5.5 pts)
GOP President, Spread 13.2 pts, Newsfutures @ 48% vs Inkling @ 34.8% (1.9 pts)

Other news and data

Thanks to techPresident for the link to OpenSecrets.Org. OpenSecrets.Org offers a rich source of data; for example, it sets out each candidate's funding and spending. It also includes a neat little application called MoneyWeb which shows where each candidate's political donations come from and who else their donor's have contributed to. It has a neat graphical interface.

CNN's web coverage of Election '08 continues to make great strides. Here's a link to CNN's Political Ticker, which provides daily updates of events. Its a useful way to keep in touch with what the candidates are doing. CNN's Election Center is also a good source of information for those who need a quick view of the latest news and insights.

Charts

There are no comparative charts this week, thanks to a fried hard drive which holds our historic data! Please be patient while our state-of-the-art back-up systems grind into action.

We can expect plenty of action in the markets over the coming weeks as the campaigns crank into third gear.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

* source data collected at 12:15pm June 9th, 2007
** less than an 0.20% movement

Instant messaging with video...

Here's some very cool technology from Meebo.  We'll be experimenting with it here at SMARTCROWD over the next few months.  Meebo is an excellent way to instant message and share video and URLs. Participation is welcome. You can copy "the room" to other websites and blogs. So, it's a very open application. (Please note: SMARTCROWD is not responsible for videos, websites, or any text messages posted through this application by third parties).

Election '08 - More hands to play?

Campaigning for the '08 Presidential Election is well and truly underway.  Both parties have held their first round debates, which attracted plenty of media coverage.  Here's how NPR.Org reported the GOP debate.

Prediction Markets

There's been some modest changes in the prediction markets. since we last calculated the index in mid April. According to the SMARTCROWD index, Hillary Clinton still leads the Democrat race with a rating of 41.12%, followed closely by Barack Obama at 33.92%.  John Edwards slipped back a few points to 10.35%.   Refer to the probability chart*, below left, comparing April and May standings.

      

                                                   

The candidates for the GOP nominee are bunched much tighter, with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain now neck and neck at 28.36% and 28.33% respectively, with Mitt Romney trailing a close third at 21.69%.  Refer to the probability chart*, right, which again compares data for this month and last.

John McCain clearly gained a couple of points at Rudy Giuliani's and Mitt Romney's expense, since we last measured the index based on a range of prediction market prices/probabilities*.

The SMARTCROWD Index for the major contracts <click here> is shown in the top left panel.

There's likely to be some changes in the markets over the next few weeks as participants respond to statements by the candidates or to events they're involved in.  Expect more significant movements if either Mike Bloomberg or Al Gore (or dare we say both) declare an intention to run.

So, what's new?

This past week, there's been plenty of speculation that New York Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, might enter the '08 race for the White House as an independent.  Here's how The Washington Post and The New York Observer each covered the buzz. Right now, Inkling Markets is the only PM covering "Bloomberg to run as an independent". While trading is thin, at the time of this post, Inkling quoted a probability of 44.3% on low volume of about 600 contracts.  If media speculation continues, you can expect other PMs to float similar contracts, and for volumes generally to increase.                     

While not new, the latent speculation continues to bubble up about Al Gore.  The New York Times Magazine, this weekend, dedicated four pages to AG under the title "Al Gore has big plans".    The article included the following Q&A..... A. “I’m not issuing a Shermanesque statement because that’s not where I am. I’m not ruling it out for all time. Although I cannot presently foresee any circumstances, such circumstances could emerge.”  Q. “And such circumstances could emerge in 2008?”  A. “It’s extremely unlikely, but not impossible.”   

Larry King will be interviewing Al Gore on Tuesday May 22nd.  The LKL trailers are teasing the LKL audience about the choice facing Al Gore; continuing to spearhead global warming awareness and strategies to address climate change, or returning to Washington.  The markets seem to think he'll choose the former, but stranger things have happened in politics. The long standing WSX contract for Al Gore as President trades at just 11.41.

Dusting off the cobwebs*

We've decided to start posting again, after a 6 month break.  We're going to be sticking to a similar format <sample>, usually posting once a week or so, on average, for the next 3 to 6 months. Our focus will mostly be on politics, but we may cover some alternative markets.

Uh?

So the first big question, Q1. "should any readers ever really be expected to wait 6 months for the next posting on any site?"  A1. No, obviously.   Our sincere apologies therefore to one and all, especially if you actually noticed we were gone during this period.  Plus, a big "thanks" if you're still reading this, and even more, if you return to read future posts.  Q2. Should we always be expected to take such long breaks after any campaign finishes (our last coverage was of the 2006 mid-term elections)?  A2. Potentially, yes, though we'll look to keep the time gaps much smaller next time, provided we can find relevant and worthy content. 

Why?

So, what's the real reason for getting back in the saddle...... Three reasons. 

1) there's plenty happening in politics right now, especially now the 2008 Election campaign has moved into second gear, with the nominees from both major parties now actively campaigning for their party's Presidential nomination.   

2) there's also plenty happening in the prediction markets space more generally (more about this at a later time).  For those who want to understand more about prediction markets, there's a great resource at Midas Oracle. 

3) it seems the '08 election will really embrace the web and a bunch of related new technologies, even more than before, and vice versa.  One small example, candidates are already posting on YouTube!  See John Edwards' message for the YouChoose campaign <initial message>, followed by a <random response>, and the subsequent <Edwards' response> adding to this video conversation over the web. 

Who knows what role Google and other media and internet companies will play in '08?  Its going to be very interesting to watch how it all unfolds through this medium. 

SMARTCROWD Probability Index

As the campaigns get into full swing, we'll be aiming to report on any significant action in the markets, while simultaneously calculating and publishing the SMARTCROWD Probability Index, as we did in the '06 mid-terms, to give you an aggregate view of the what the different crowds are signalling across some of the more relevant markets.  The index will cover Inkling Markets, Newsfutures, WSX, Casual Observer (after it morphs into PredictionXchange) and other major markets like Intrade.

We've published our initial Probability Indexes (for April) <click here, if you are linking from an email or feed reader>, covering most of the leading GOP and Democrat nominees. 

We also have published an index rating for the expected likelihood of a Democratic President, currently at 60% or a Republican President, currently at 40%, following the '08 election.   The SMARTCROWD Probability Index, based on a range of prediction markets, recently showed Democratic nominee John Edwards at 13.28%, trailing Barack Obama, at 31.73% and Hillary Clinton, at 40.57%. 

Look out for more posts in the coming weeks and months.  We hope you'll find the data interesting. 

Those of you who subscribe to our feed will be receiving and hopefully reading this update shortly after it was posted to our site.  You can't beat a good RSS feed!  (Note: to anyone who has been pinging the site periodically, PLEASE do yourself a favour and subscribe.  It only takes a click and a good feed reader to let someone else do all the grunt work for you.  We use Google Reader.)

More soon......

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

* excerpted from Wikipedia  "Current usage often denotes a collection of dust, usually inside, with little to no traffic by people or animals."  Very fitting!